SpaceX

Two weeks, two share lock-up periods, a nervous market. SpaceX shareholders are currently experiencing a nail-biting situation that repeats week after week. 20 Euros. However, this is not enough to offset the week's losses. 1 percent is recorded — triggered by the second major lock-up release since the IPO. On Thursday, around 319 million previously locked shares became tradable. It is the calendar-based tranche for the 70th day after the IPO. Two weeks prior, around 912 million shares had already been released. The first release on August 6 went surprisingly smoothly.

The share gained over six percent despite the lock-up release — and this, even though it had plunged by almost 14 percent the day before and marked an all-time low. This time, the market reacted more subdued, but negatively. 49 percent. Additionally, news about competition in the rocket business weighed on the already limited free float. The staggered release is far from over. On September 9, another approximately 319 million shares will become tradable. Tranches will follow on September 24, October 9, and October 24, before the complete 180-day lock-up period ends on December 8.

Elon Musk's stake, the largest single block, remains unaffected. It is locked until June 2027. Most newly tradable shares are held by executives, employees, and early investors. After a price decline of around 40 percent from the post-IPO high, these groups are unlikely to be inclined to sell immediately. A release, after all, does not oblige one to sell, it only enables it. However, the limited free float can amplify price swings in both directions — and the market already knows that further supply is coming. The number of shares is also growing due to company acquisitions.

On August 14, SpaceX completed the acquisition of Cursor (Anysphere). For this, the group issued 389,289,254 new Class A shares, a volume of around 60 billion dollars at the then-current price. In total, about 88 percent of the 13 billion SpaceX shares are to be released from the lock-up period by 2027. Despite the price fluctuations, several Wall Street analysts maintain their positive assessment. Clear-Street analyst Brian Dobson confirmed his buy rating with a price target of 217 dollars — which corresponds to an upside potential of over 50 percent.

He counts SpaceX among his preferred stocks in the aerospace sector. UBS analyst John Hodulik also reiterated his buy recommendation, with a price target of 210 dollars. He refers to strong long-term growth prospects for Starlink and the company's other technology divisions. Competitive pressure from China simultaneously provided talking points.