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Crypto traders are currently implicitly valuing Anthropic more than 1 trillion dollars (866 billion euros) higher than in the last funding round, and that's before public investors have even had a look at the books. The company behind the chatbot Claude has confidentially filed its IPO application and opted for a Nasdaq listing. The public version of the so-called S-1 documents, which a US company uses to register its IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is still pending. Until then, the only real-time price for Anthropic comes from a niche of the crypto market where pre-IPO speculation is commonplace.

There, the company is trading significantly higher than it has ever agreed with an investor. The last officially agreed valuation was 965 billion dollars (836 billion euros). It arose when a Series H round of 65 billion dollars (56 billion euros) was completed at the end of May, led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. This was already an exceptional value for a company founded in 2021 by Dario and Daniela Amodei. 3 billion euros) barely a year earlier – an increase of almost 16-fold in around twelve months. Revenue has grown almost as quickly.

Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate exceeded 65 billion dollars (56 billion euros) by the end of July, driven by the use of Claude in enterprises. 4 billion euros) in 2025. They reflect the costs of training new cutting-edge models. 6 billion euros) in Anthropic. 6 billion euros) on AWS technologies over the next ten years. Given these figures, investors are already aiming significantly beyond the last round's valuation. 73 trillion euros) for the IPO. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering, which is expected to raise more than 60 billion dollars (52 billion euros).

Perpetual futures, which reflect Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation, are currently traded on Hyperliquid. The platform is considered the largest decentralized derivatives market. 86 trillion euros) at the time of writing. 2 times the Series H valuation. Heng Yu Lee, a partner at market maker DWF Labs, which trades these instruments, refutes the accusation that leverage is primarily driving the premium. "Whether with leverage or without, anyone trading in the pre-market stands for genuine demand at the displayed price," he told Euronews. He added, "the premium incorporates publicly available information, such as expected revenue figures and the anticipated demand for the stock."

These contracts also react first as soon as the documents are published. They trade around the clock, even when stock markets are closed. "When a document like the S-1 appears, trading volumes typically shoot up and prices fluctuate sharply as the market processes the information," Lee explained. Compared to the valuation, however, the market is manageable. "Currently, the market is not particularly deep, with only 6 million dollars in 24-hour volume and 31 million dollars in open positions on Hyperliquid," Lee said. "The closer the IPO gets, the more likely liquidity will increase as more investors enter."

Lee also speaks openly about how much weight should be given to the figure. "Right now, I wouldn't rely too heavily on the absolute price formation, because the public S-1 is still missing," he said. At the same time, he clarified: "The direction in which prices move generally continues to reflect quite accurately how sentiment towards the company is developing." Once Anthropic publicly files the documents, it is clear: 2026 will be the year of AI IPOs. Chipmaker Cerebras Systems, which develops wafer-scale processors and offers them as an alternative to Nvidia's products, kicked things off.

76 billion euros). The issue price of 185 dollars per share was above the previously adjusted range. The stock opened 89 percent higher and closed its first trading day near 311 dollars. This gave Cerebras a valuation of around 67 billion dollars (58 billion euros) instead of the 23 billion dollars (20 billion euros) set three months earlier. Investor demand for a credible challenger to Nvidia was high but quickly cooled after the first disappointing quarterly report. 8 billion euros). 6 billion euros). 69 trillion euros). OpenAI had also planned an IPO for this year and had already confidentially filed the documents.

However, the company has now completely abandoned the plan. Its private valuation is 852 billion dollars (738 billion euros), set in a 122-billion-dollar round in March. CEO Sam Altman told "Fortune" magazine on Saturday that an IPO this year would be "not advisable." He ruled out 2026 and avoided committing to 2027. The company has "a lot to do" regarding safety and alignment, and it's easier as a private company. Altman's remarks came on the same day that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay titled "We Must Pace the Frontier." In it, he argued that AI companies should deliberately slow down the pace at which they improve their most powerful models.

Amodei proposed three steps: independent auditors with access to frontier systems like employees, harmonized safety standards among labs in democratic states, and international agreements on particularly dangerous categories of use. Anthropic has already unilaterally implemented the first point. Approval came quickly: Sam Altman said he shared the view that development at the frontier must be paced, and Elon Musk replied simply: "Dario is right."