Casualty loss costs outpace pricing as commercial market splinters
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The gap between current pricing and underlying loss costs is the central concern. US casualty loss costs are rising at 6 to 7 percent annually for primary and 9.5 to 12 percent for excess, Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg said on the company's Q2 earnings call in July. He added there is "zero evidence across the industry that loss costs have abated." At those rates, the gap between where pricing sits and where it needs to be can close faster than most renewal cycles allow. Competition has increased in middle and upper excess layers, which can work in buyers' favor on program structure and terms. Lead umbrella capacity and pricing, however, remain under greater pressure. Buyers expecting relief higher up the tower to flow down to the lead layer should not count on that. Lockton's March 2026 market analysis flagged casualty as the main outlier even then, with reinsurers closely monitoring reserve adequacy and systemic liability trends. Employment practices liability (EPL) is the sharpest hardening in the executive risk book. Median EPL rates rose 29% in Q2, according to Lockton, driven by rising claim frequency and severity, higher defense costs, and growing AI-assisted plaintiff filings. Carriers are also tightening on retentions and becoming less flexible on defense counsel selection. The line is becoming jurisdiction-specific in its pressure points. California, New York, New Jersey...
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