r/wallstreetbets
PSNL - a textbook case of reflexivity from Soros’ Alchemy of Finance?
- upvotes
- 1
- comments
- 0
Post
Highlighted: the lines this signal was extracted from
Guys, I think I just noticed a textbook case of reflexivity - PSNL, Personalis. This tiny and very little known company powers the engine behind the recently hyped Merck-Moderna cancer vaccine. Despite the huge revenue upside from the vaccine, the stock has barely performed after the news, due to its previous merger agreement with Tempus at $16.25, which was BEFORE the vaccine update and is still pending shareholders’ vote. This is where things get interesting- after the vaccine news, PSNL stock broke through $16.25 and has been trading at a slight premium over the buyout price for 5 days in a row. And over 30% of outstanding shares have been traded above the buyout price as of yesterday. Due to its tiny scale and the huge revenue upside from the vaccine, I think it’s safe to assume impressive returns if the deal was to fall apart. And the more shares traded above the buyout price and the higher the share price goes, the less likely is the merger to go through. The situation feels exactly like what George Soros described in Alchemy of Finance - the higher the volume and share price, the higher the share price will climb. And based on its recent trading, I think some big boys might have been making this bet. The shares trades at only about 3% premium over $16.25, worth taking a shot? Any thoughts?
Also quoted as evidence
...due to its previous merger agreement with Tempus at $16.25, which was BEFORE the vaccine update and is still pending shareholders’ vote.
From the post