US banking set for far-reaching shake-up as next wave of consolidation builds
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NEW YORK, Aug. 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The US banking industry is poised shake-up since 2008 during the new analysis from Bain & Company released today. New Bain modeling based on 20 years of sector data and previous M&A suggests the number of US banks holding more than $1 trillion in assets is poised to rise for the first time in nearly two decades. By the end of 2030, the current group of four banks in the trillion-dollar club – JPMorganChase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo – will grow to between five and seven as large regional banks consolidate, Bain concludes. The expected consolidation among regional players will in turn sharply cut the number of large US regional banks, with assets of $50 billion to $1 trillion, from 49 now to as few as 30 over the next five years, the analysis projects. The number of smaller regional banks, with assets of $10 billion to $50 billion, is also expected to drop significantly, from 103 now to as few as 80 over the period. Community banks with assets of less than $10 billion are meanwhile set to see their ranks dwindle from 4,200 now to between 3,600 and 3,800 by 2030, Bain finds. US banking M&A activity slowed in the first half of this year, with the value of announced deals up by only a modest 7% year-on-year, compared with the heady 19% year-on-year rise in deal value seen in 2025, Bain notes. But its analysis concludes...
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