Lam Research's Growth Shock: From 80% to 3% as Investors Rethink AI Hardware Boom - Ad-hoc-news.de
Article excerpt
Wall Street got a jarring reality check on Lam Research this week, but the sell-off wasn't just about one weak jobs report. Beneath the 7% plunge on Friday lies a deeper unease: the blistering growth cycle that powered the chip-equipment maker's shares to a record $438 in the first half is decelerating far faster than many anticipated. After a year of triple-digit percentage gains, the narrative has suddenly shifted from "how high can it go?" to "how much air is left in the tires?" The math is sobering. For the current fiscal year, analysts now expect Lam's system shipments to grow by only about 3%, a dramatic collapse from the 80% pace recorded just a year ago. That slowdown is being driven by two factors that feed into each other: the biggest cloud customers are wringing more efficiency out of their existing AI infrastructure, and the hardware spending spree that juiced Lam's wafer-fab equipment orders is showing signs of fatigue. OpenAI has already achieved significant efficiency gains in its models' computing power, while Meta is planning to monetize excess AI capacity as a cloud service - moves that suggest future demand for new fabrication tools may not match the breakneck pace of 2024 and early 2025. The immediate trigger for Friday's rout was a U.S. ADP employment report showing just 98,000 private-sector jobs added in June, well below expectations. That stoked fears...
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The company's fundamentals are still solid: revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 grew 24.4% to $16.5 billion, and the fourth-quarter forecast of $6.6 billion would push annual revenue to $23.1 billion - a 25% year-on-year increase.
