Kalshi quadruples its valuation to 40 billion and prediction markets challenge the SEC
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The platform moves 37 billion a month and plans an IPO in 2027. States like Nevada or New York are redoubling pressure on its sports contracts. Kalshi has broken the 40 billion dollar valuation barrier and is already planning an IPO in 2027. The figure, reported by Washington Examiner, quadruples the company's value from eight months ago. The data hides an extraordinary expansion: in July, it moved more than 37 billion dollars in contracts, boosted by the World Cup. This volume confirms that prediction markets are no longer an academic experiment: they are a new class of financial asset. Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, two MIT alumni who worked on Wall Street. He worked as a derivatives analyst at Goldman Sachs; she, at Bridgewater and Citadel. Their thesis was simple: if investors were already trading on Brexit or elections through derivatives, why not trade directly on the binary outcome? The bet paid off. In 2020, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulator of derivatives markets in the US) approved Kalshi as a designated contract market, the same category as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This places it outside state gambling laws and under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC's approval was the key to everything. The contract functions as a binary question: 'Will it snow in New York between January 24 and 26?' or...
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